Strategic Review 1999
Strategic Review 1999
Many things have happened under the auspices of the reform of the armed forces, the trend until 1998 definitely was characterized by the downsizing of the armed forces, the rapid depletion of stocks, the deterioration of personnel composition and the disappearance of the – already too weak – defence industry. Although in 1995, the Parliament did try to provide some sort of guidance to the seemingly uncontrollable process, by stating that “the size of the armed forces has to be in line with the level of threat facing the country, available capacities and the intent of accession to NATO”. This however was only enough to develop a new structure of command, meaning that the Army and the Air Force Staff were set up beside the Defence Staff along with the Logistics Directorate. However changes in leadership were not followed by a transformation of the forces themselves.
In 1997 and 1998, the Hungarian delegation negotiating about terms of accession promised that it will increase the defence expenditures of the country by 0.1% annually until 2001, which by then would amount to 1.81% of the GDP. It was from this amount that the military hoped to finance tasks stemming from membership in the Alliance (interoperability). NATO was not really interested in this figure, but much more in the extent of military tasks that can be financed with this money. In accordance with the accepted procedures within the Alliance, a “Defence Planning Questionnaire” has to be completed every year about the steps of military planning and the allocated finances. The first doubts about the promises of the Hungarian party were raised during 1998 and problems became only too evident when in the spring of 1999 the Hungarian delegation asked for the postponement of the implementation of certain military programs. The embarrassing affair hastened the review of defence issues within the government and after certain changes made in the leadership, the government passed a resolution ordering a “strategic review” in July 1999. The resolution hoped for the establishment of a “smaller, capability-oriented, and better financed” armed force, that is “one capable of providing for national defence, fulfilling allied obligations and participating in international crisis management at a level acceptable according to the times.” The repeated transformation of the armed forces will entail further downsizing (29%), a transformation of personnel composition (there are too many senior officers), an increase in the number of contract personnel (19%) and the disengagement from all activities which are not related to the basic mission of the armed forces. The defence portfolio was also liberated of its budgetary “revenue obligations”: surplus real estate was transferred to state asset management organizations.
In 2000 – having “sacrificed” senior officials and high ranking officers – the integration of the defence staff into the Ministry of Defence will also be completed. This will conclude the establishment of the conditions of civilian oversight: the minister of defence will control the armed forces by way of the chief of the defence staff.
According to the concept of the strategic review, the downsizing will be followed by an improvement of the living conditions of soldiers (by 2002), then the establishment of a capability oriented force (by 2006) to be concluded finally by equipment modernization, encompassing the replacement of weapons available currently. Most doubts are not raised because of deadlines extending well beyond the government cycle, but much more because of the proportion of the budget intended for defence. It remains a question, if 1.6% of the GDP will be enough to finance all tasks, even if the current fast pace of economic growth prevails. The Hungarian party calculated the 0.2% allocated to the Border Guards into the 1.8% figure, which NATO does not wish to treat as part of the defence budget. The tasks mentioned in the concept which followed the strategic review – especially modernization left for the end – necessitate resources which are higher then what was envisaged until now.
Ferenc Gazdag
