Trends in Foreign Trade in the First Ten Months of 2000
Trends in Foreign Trade in the First Ten Months of 2000
According to preliminary HBS data, total Hungarian exports (in USD at going prices) realized a value 13.1% higher in the first ten months of 2000 than in the reference period of the previous year. Even calculated in USD, exports grew more dynamically than during the same period the year before, in spite of the fact that the bulk of the turnover was realized in relatively devalued euros5. Imports increased at a rate slightly above export growth (15.1%) between January and October 2000. Thus our foreign trade deficit surpassed the negative balance of the same period in 1999 by USD 700 million, climbing slightly above USD 3.2 billion by the end of October 2000. This was due mainly to our 2.6% lower ratio of foreign trade exchange, which in turn was due to the price rise of energy carriers.
On the other hand, the downward trend of the euro was also noticeable in the 12.1% increase of Hungarian exports into the European Union, which remained just below the growth rate of total exports. Consequently, the share in exports of the European Union decreased by one percentage point to 75%. However, the share in imports of the fifteen EU member states decreased significantly, by about seven percentage points, to reach 58%. This was due to the fact that Hungarian imports from the Union increased by “only” 3%, a trend that resulted in a Hungarian trade surplus of USD 2.016 billion in relation to the EU during the first ten months of 2000, i.e., triple the 1999 value.
Germany, our most important trade partner, continues to take up half of the total Hungarian exports directed into the EU. The share of Austria (12%) and Italy (8%) also remained constant in our exports to the EU. However, our exports to France and the Netherlands increased far beyond the national economy average (thirty and sixteen percentage points, respectively), so both countries now represent a 7% share of Hungarian EU exports. Our EU imports from Austria decreased sharply (by seven percentage points), from Germany and Belgium only slightly (by one percentage point) in the first ten months of 2000.
The preliminary data suggest that during the first ten months of 2000 the goods structure (expressed in terms of SITC product groups) of Hungarian exports into the EU continued its rearrangement. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the value of machinery and equipment sold in the EU increased by 17%, bringing this product subgroup up to a two-thirds share (65%) in our total EU exports. The share of foods, beverages and tobacco continued to decrease, reaching 4% of Hungarian EU exports. At the same time, the influx of food and energy carriers in Hungarian imports (again expressed in terms of SITC product groups) increased faster than the average (by 15% and 34%, respectively). However, the shares of these within the total EU imports remained constant; 2% and 1%, respectively. Similarly, the share of raw materials (1%), processed products (41%), and machinery and equipment (54.%) also remained the same between January and October 2000.
Further structural changes can be expected to take place in the future in the market and product scheme of our foreign trade in goods, although the scope of these changes will presumably be more limited than the rearrangement of the past decade. The concentration of Hungarian foreign trade into the EU countries already surpasses the trends previously observed for other countries prior to accession. A further minor increase – primarily in imports – will undoubtedly take place subsequent to Hungary’s EU accession.
Csaba Zalai
Table 1: Evolution of Hungarian Exports (at current prices, in USD million)
Table 2: Evolution of Hungarian Imports (at current prices, in USD million)
Table 3: Hungarian Foreign Trade in Goods with EU Member States in 1999 (by SITC product group)
